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The project
In the project "Long-term Scenarios for the Transformation of the Energy System in Germany" (Long-term Scenarios III), scenarios for the future development of the energy system are being modeled on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, with which the energy and climate policy goals can be achieved. The modeling covers the entire energy system, i.e., overarching generation of electricity, heat, and hydrogen, as well as demand for energy in the industry, transport, building, and appliances sectors. The energy infrastructures (electricity and gases) are also modeled. The focus of the analysis is not on the development of a single "lead scenario", but on the investigation of different scenario worlds in order to gain insights into the advantages and disadvantages of alternative paths for the transformation of the energy system through the comparative analyses.
Scenario cycles
T45 scenarios (2022)
With our models, which have been improved once again, we are investigating how Germany can become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045, taking into account current political targets (2022).
TN scenarios (2021)
The TN scenarios were calculated in 2021. We examine different paths for Germany with the goal of becoming greenhouse gas neutral by 2050. Even though the targets have become more ambitious in the meantime, many insights can be gained from comparing the total of 9 scenarios calculated in high resolution.
Scenario worlds
T45 scenarios
Electrification
The electrification scenario worlds rely heavily on the use of renewable electricity, although significant amounts of hydrogen are already required to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality even in these scenarios. (More)
Hydrogen
The hydrogen-based scenario worlds examine different manifestations of an increased use of hydrogen for the decarbonization of the energy system. (More)
Synth. hydrocarbons
The synthetic hydrocarbon-based scenario worlds (power-to-gas/power-to-liquid (PtG/PtL)) examine different manifestations of the use of synthetic hydrocarbons (PtG/PtL) for decarbonizing the energy system. (More)
Scenario with focus on electrification
T45-Electricity: The T45-Electricity scenario relies on a strong electrification of the energy system to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality. This scenario is the first main scenario as a starting point for analysing the electricity worlds.
T45-RedEff: This scenario examines how the picture of the TN-Electricity scenario changes if progress in energy efficiency is lower.
T45-RedGas: This scenario examines a phase-out of methane use as quickly as possible.
Scenario with focus on hydrogen
T45-H2: The TN-H2-G scenario relies on a strong use of green hydrogen in the energy system.
Scenario with focus on hydrocarbon
T45-PtG/PtL: The T45-PtG/PtL scenario relies on a strong use of synthetic hydrocarbons in the energy system.
TN scenarios
Electrification
The electrification scenario worlds rely heavily on the use of renewable electricity, although significant amounts of hydrogen are already required to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality even in these scenarios. (More)
Hydrogen
The hydrogen-based scenario worlds examine different manifestations of an increased use of hydrogen for the decarbonization of the energy system. (More)
Synth. hydrocarbons
The synthetic hydrocarbon-based scenario worlds (power-to-gas/power-to-liquid (PtG/PtL)) examine different manifestations of the use of synthetic hydrocarbons (PtG/PtL) for decarbonizing the energy system. (More)
Status of the scenarios in the field of electrification
TN-Electricity: The TN-Electricity scenario relies on a strong electrification of the energy system to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality. This scenario is the first main scenario as a starting point to analyze the electricity worlds.
Status: completed
Available Documentation:
- Slide set Executive Summary presentation (translation available soon)
- Executive Summary Report
- Main scenarios module energy supply ("Langbericht"; translation available soon)
TN-RedWindOn: This scenario examines how the picture of the TN-Electricity scenario changes if less land can be used for onshore wind energy in Europe.
Status: Calculation completed; The webinar took place on 02.12.2021; You can find the slide set here (translation available soon).
TN-WorseCaseI: This scenario examines the impact of the combination of "Less onshore wind"; "Less transportation grid"; and "Less efficiency" on the energy system.
Status: Calculation completed; The webinar took place on 02.12.2021; You can find the slide set here (translation available soon).
TN-RedWN: This scenario examines the impact of reduced use of heat networks on the energy system.
Status: Calculation completed; The webinar took place on 02.12.2021; You can find the slide set here (translation available soon).
TN-RedÜNetz: This scenario examines how a smaller expansion of the transmission grids affects the energy system.
Status: Calculation completed; The webinar took place on 02.12.2021; You can find the slide set here (translation available soon).
TN-RedEff: This scenario examines how the picture of the TN-Electricity scenario changes if there is less efficiency in energy use.
Status: Calculation completed; The webinar took place on 02.12.2021; You can find the slide set here (translation available soon).
TN-RedVN: This scenario examines the impact of a greater reduction in distribution grid expansion on the energy system.
Status: Calculation completed; The webinar took place on 02.12.2021; You can find the slide set here (translation available soon).
Status of the scenarios in the field of hydrogen
TN-H2-G: The TN-H2-G scenario relies on a strong use of green hydrogen in the energy system. This scenario is the first main scenario of the hydrogen scenario world and serves as a starting point for further analyses.
Status: Calculated
Available Documentation:
- Slide set Executive Summary presentation (translation available soon)
- Executive Summary Report
- Main scenarios module energy supply ("Langbericht"; translation available soon)
Status of the scenarios in the field of synthetic hydrocarbons
TN-PtG/PtL: The TN-PtG/PtL scenario relies on a strong use of synthetic hydrocarbons in the energy system. This scenario is the first main scenario of the synthetic hydrocarbons scenario world and serves as a starting point for further analyses.
Status: Calculated
Available Documentation:
- Slide set Executive Summary presentation (translation available soon)
- Executive Summary Report
- Main scenarios module energy supply ("Langbericht")