The GN scenarios were calculated in 2021. We examine different paths for Germany with the goal of becoming greenhouse gas neutral by 2050. Even though the targets have become more ambitious in the meantime, many insights can be gained from comparing the total of 9 scenarios calculated in high resolution. A special feature of this study is the integrated consideration of electricity and gas grids, as well as the full European resolution on the supply side.
We hope you enjoy exploring these paths!
On 02.12.2021, more than 300 participants took part in the webinar on the scenario variants of the GN-Electricity and asked more than 120 questions in the chat. We thank you for your lively interest! You can find the slide set here.
In order to determine the expansion demand in the German transmission grid, we use a line-specific model of the German transmission grid and the neighbouring countries. It is based on an approximate data set researched using publicly available data, which we have been able to validate in numerous studies. It also includes the expansion projects planned according to the EnLAG, the Federal Requirements Plan and the TYNDP. The regionalisation of electricity demand and generation is optimally matched to the modelling of supply optimisation (enertile). For the load flow and (n-1) outage calculations, we use the grid calculation suite "allocation" developed by Consentec. allocation also allows optimisation of the use of phase-shifting transformers, HVDCs and grid boosters with a view to minimising the need for grid expansion.
We model the development of the distribution grids on the basis of the tried and tested approaches of model grid analysis. Model network analysis is an analytical procedure for determining cost-optimal structures of electricity distribution grids and for determining the relationships between the characteristics of a supply task and the network costs. For this purpose, the model network analysis reproduces the network planning process, taking into account the technical boundary conditions and all relevant planning criteria. For the implementation of the model network analyses, we use the "EXOGON" software developed by Consentec. In addition, we use, among other things, a procedure developed by us for dynamic peak capping in order to best map the reduction of the grid expansion demand through an optimised use of the instrument of "peak capping" for RE generation plants.
The calculations for the G45 scenarios have started. With our models, which have been improved once again, we are investigating how Germany can become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045, taking into account current political goals.