The GN scenarios were calculated in 2021. We examine different paths for Germany with the goal of becoming greenhouse gas neutral by 2050. Even though the targets have become more ambitious in the meantime, many insights can be gained from comparing the total of 9 scenarios calculated in high resolution. A special feature of this study is the integrated view taking into account electricity and gas grids, as well as the full European resolution on the supply side.
We hope you enjoy exploring these paths !
The calculations for the T45 scenarios have begun. Using our models, which have been improved once again, we are investigating how Germany can become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045, taking into account current political targets.
12.01.2022: The report of the "industry" sector is now available in the documents section
30.11.2021: The report of the "electricity grids" sector is now available in the documents section
30.11.2021: The report of the sector "energy supply" is now available in the documents section
30.11.2021: The report of the "traffic and transport" sector is now available in the documents section
14.10.2021: The report of the "building sector" is now available in the documents section
01.10.2021: The report module for onshore wind energy potentials (174) is now available in the documents section
24.09.2021: The report module for household appliances and tertiary processes and appliances is now available in the documents section
The scenario explorer is online again!
Note: Occasionally there can be problems with the display of the dashboards in the browser Chrome. In incognito mode (Ctrl-Shift+N) or by deleting cache and cookies this error can usually be fixed.
19.05.2022: Dashboard on CSP potentials in Europe online
15.03.2022: New dashboard on final energy consumption
15.03.2022: The transmission network development dashboard has been updated
11.03.2022: The dashboard on electricity consumption in Europe now also includes electricity consumption for heat pumps
05.03.2022: The network cost dashboard now includes a breakdown by network level.
10.02.2022: The dashboards on heat networks now also include data on heat generation from biomass. This results in minor changes to some indicators.
24.01.2022: By popular request, the hourly dispatch data for Germany are now also available for download as a file
13.01.2022: New dashboards for onshore wind and PV online
12.01.2022: Dashboards on the industrial sector revised with many new contents
10.01.2022: Dashboard framework data framework data revised, now including GDP
21.12.2021: New dashboard on the potential of ground-mounted PV
17.12.2021: New dashboard on charging infrastructure in the traffic and transport sector
15.12.2021: New dashboards on the European power system available for all TN scenarios Supply | Long-term scenarios
07.12.2021: New dashboard Hydrogen demand in Germany (regionalized) available
19.11.2021: New dashboard on peak power demand available
11.11.2021: New dashboard on energy carrier prices available
10.11.2021: New electricity trading dashboard available.
22.10.2021: The dashboard on onshore wind energy potentials is now available
21.10.2021: The dashboards electricity system in Europe and electricity system in Germany now also include the outputs for storage hydropower, flexible biomass and the full load hours of gas-fired power plants.
11.10.2021: Full load hours in the dashboard electricity system Germany extended
08.10.2021: Download option in the dashboard dispatch Germany now enabled
06.10.2021: Dashboard electricity system Europe revised with many new figures and parameters.
30.07.2021: Scenario Explorer now includes data on hydrogen production in Europe
30.07.2021: Scenario Explorer now includes detailed industry data in sector resolution
20.07.2021: The Scenario Explorer now contains a new dashboard on emission factors of energy carriers under overall balances
16.07.2021: The Power Generation dashboard now includes full load hours for selected technologies Germany. The graph "Installed capacity in Germany" in the Scenario Explorer now also includes flexible hydropower and biomass (data update).
13.07.2021: New dashboard available in Scenario Explorer on storage volume
12.07.2021: New dashboard available in the Scenario Explorer on framework data
On 02.12.2021, more than 300 participants took part in the webinar on the scenario variants of the "electricity world" and asked more than 120 questions in the chat. We would like to thank you for your active interest!.. You can find the slide set here . You can start the video here. Webinar Scenario Variants GN-Electricity
To kick off the project, an overview of the results was presented to the interested public during a two-hour webinar on Friday, June 25, 2021 from 12:30 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. in the presence of state secretary Andreas Feicht.
In the project "Long-term Scenarios for the Transformation of the Energy System in Germany" (Long-term Scenarios 3), scenarios for the future development of the energy system are being modeled on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, with which the energy and climate policy goals can be achieved. The modeling covers the entire energy system.
We want to "illuminate" the path to a greenhouse gas-neutral energy system ever better for the social discourse on the energy transition. That is why we are constantly developing our models so that the picture becomes brighter and brighter. In doing so, we do not make forecasts, but investigate interdependencies.
The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research is working on this project with its partners Consentec Gmbh, ifeu - Institute for Energy and Environmental Research Heidelberg GmbH, and the Chair of Energy and Resource Management at the TU Berlin. So far, more than 30 scientists have collaborated on this project.
The Long-term Scenarios 3 project is being worked on by the project team on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action. We want to create a high degree of transparency for the public discourse on the energy transition by providing documentation and data in the Scenario Explorer.