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Long-term Scenarios 3

Scientific analyses on the decarbonization of Germany
Erkennungsbild T45-Szenraien

The calculations for the T45 scenarios have begun. With our models, which have been improved once again, we are investigating how Germany can become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045, taking into account current political goals.

From 15.11.2022, the presentation of the T45 scenarios will begin in a webinar series. Register here

The recordings of the webinars and the slides shown will be made available here after the webinars.

New content in the Scenario Explorer went online at 12:00.

New content T45 scenarios (greenhouse gas neutral by 2045)

Scenario Explorer

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23.11.2022: New Dashboard on transmission grids online Stromnetze | Langfristszenarien

23.11.2022: New Dashboard on distribution grids online Stromnetze | Langfristszenarien

21.11.2022: New dashboard on heat grids dispatch online

21.11.2022: New Dashboard on dispatch electricity online

18.11.2022: New dashboard on hydrogen trading online

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17.11.2022: Dashboard on heat networks in the building sector at NUTS3 level online here

17.11.2022: Dashboard on heat grids at NUTS3 level online here

16.11.2022: New hydrogen production dashboards online here

Webinars

The following webinars are planned:

  • 15.11.2022 12-14:00 General overview
  • 16.11.2022 10-11:30 Industry
  • 17.11.2022 13-14:30 Buildings
  • 21.11.2022 10-11:30 Transport
  • 22.11.2022 10-12:30 Supply
  • 24.11.2022 10-12:00 Grids

Feel free to watch the recordings and explore the energy transition in the Scenario Explorer .

Videos (in German)

Overview webinar with State Secretary Dr. Patrick Graichen

Thank you for your interest! More than 750 participants took part in the overview webinar via stream and online conference! In our Q&A channel we answered 73 questions and thank you for your very active participation!

Webinars on the sectors

Thank you for your interest! A total of about 2450 people participated in our webinar series from 15.11.2022 to 24.11.2022. They asked more than 370 questions, which we answered. Thank you very much for your active participation ! Here you can find the 11 hours of video material of the webinars.

Thank you for your interest! More than 350 participants took part in the webinar on energy supply! In our Q&A channel we answered 71 questions and thank you for your very active participation!

Thank you for your interest! More than 250 participants attended the webinar on the transport sector on 21.11.2022. We answered 47 questions in our Q&A channel and thank you for your very active participation!

Thank you for your interest! More than 350 participants took part in the webinar on 17.11.2022 of the building and household appliances and tertiary processes and appliances sectors. We answered 63 questions in our Q&A channel and thank you for your very active participation!

Thank you for your interest! More than 400 participants attended the webinar of the industry sector on 16.11.2022. We answered 52 questions in our Q&A channel and thank you for your very active participation!

Thank you for your interest! More than 350 participants took part in the webinar grids! In our Q&A channel we answered 73 questions and thank you for your very active participation!


TN scenarios (greenhouse gas neutral by 2050)

Erkennungsbild der TN-Szenarien

The Tscenarios were calculated in 2021. We examine different paths for Germany with the goal of becoming greenhouse gas neutral by 2050. Even though the targets have become more ambitious in the meantime, many insights can be gained from comparing the total of 9 scenarios calculated in high resolution. A special feature of this study is the integrated view taking into account electricity and gas grids, as well as the full European resolution on the supply side.

We hope you enjoy exploring these paths !

New reports / documents

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12.01.2022: The report of the "industry" sector is now available in the documents section

30.11.2021: The report of the "electricity grids" sector is now available in the documents section 

30.11.2021: The report of the sector "energy supply" is now available in the documents section 

30.11.2021: The report of the "transport" sector is now available in the documents section

14.10.2021: The report of the "building sector" is now available in the documents section

01.10.2021: The report module for onshore wind energy potentials (174) is now available in the documents section

24.09.2021: The report module for household appliances and tertiary processes and appliances is now available in the documents section

12.08.2021: Full documentation for offshore wind energy potential available in documents section with revised dashboard 

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New content in the Scenario Explorer

The scenario explorer is online again!

Note: Occasionally there can be problems with the display of the dashboards in the browser Chrome. In incognito mode (Ctrl-Shift+N) or by deleting cache and cookies this error can usually be fixed.

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19.05.2022: Dashboard on CSP potentials in Europe online  

15.03.2022: New dashboard on final energy consumption

15.03.2022: The transmission network development dashboard has been updated

11.03.2022: The dashboard on electricity consumption in Europe now also includes electricity consumption for heat pumps

05.03.2022: The network cost dashboard now includes a breakdown by network level.

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10.02.2022: The dashboards on heat networks now also include data on heat generation from biomass. This results in minor changes to some indicators.

24.01.2022: By popular request, the hourly dispatch data for Germany are now also available for download as a file

13.01.2022: New dashboards for onshore wind and PV online

12.01.2022: Dashboards on the industry sector revised with many new contents

10.01.2022: Dashboard framework data framework data revised, now including GDP

21.12.2021: New dashboard on the potential of ground-mounted PV

17.12.2021: New dashboard on charging infrastructure in the transport sector

15.12.2021: New dashboards on the European power system available for all TN scenarios Supply | Long-term scenarios

09.12.2021: New dashboards on the German power system available for all TN scenarios (generation, performance).

07.12.2021: New dashboard Hydrogen demand in Germany (regionalized) available

19.11.2021: New dashboard on peak power demand available

11.11.2021: New dashboard on energy carrier prices available

10.11.2021: New electricity trading dashboard available.

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22.10.2021: The dashboard on onshore wind energy potentials is now available

21.10.2021: The dashboards electricity system in Europe and electricity system in Germany now also include the outputs for storage hydropower, flexible biomass and the full load hours of gas-fired power plants.

11.10.2021: Full load hours in the dashboard electricity system Germany extended

08.10.2021: Download option in the dashboard dispatch Germany now enabled

06.10.2021: Dashboard electricity system Europe revised with many new figures and parameters.

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12.08.2021: Full documentation for offshore wind energy potentials available in documents section with revised dashboard .

30.07.2021: Scenario Explorer now includes data on hydrogen production in Europe

30.07.2021: Scenario Explorer now includes detailed industry data in sector resolution

20.07.2021: The Scenario Explorer now contains a new dashboard on emission factors of energy carriers under overall balances

16.07.2021: The Power Generation dashboard now includes full load hours for selected technologies Germany. The graph "Installed capacity in Germany" in the Scenario Explorer now also includes flexible hydropower and biomass (data update).

13.07.2021: New dashboard available in Scenario Explorer on storage volume

12.07.2021: New dashboard available in the Scenario Explorer on framework data

Quick overview TN scenarios

Executive Summary presentation available

Executive Summary

We have provided an initial overview of our current findings with a slide set of the Executive Summary. (more here; translation available soon)

Executive Summary report available

Kurzzusammenfassung

We have compiled the most important results as a short report in this document. (more here). The long versions are available in the documents section.

Webinar Series

Webinar on scenario variants TN-Electricity

On 02.12.2021, more than 300 participants took part in the webinar on the scenario variants of the "electricity world" and asked more than 120 questions in the chat. We would like to thank you for your active interest!.. You can find the slide set here . You can start the video here. Webinar Scenario Variants TN-Electricity

Overview webinar with State Secretary Andreas Feicht

To kick off the project, an overview of the results was presented to the interested public during a two-hour webinar on Friday, June 25, 2021 from 12:30 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. in the presence of state secretary Andreas Feicht.

The webinar was streamed and recorded. More than 500 participants attended live. You can find the slide set here . You can start the video here. overview webinar

Webinar series very well attended

From 25.06.2021 to 08.07.2021, we hosted 6 webinars on our scenarios. The webinars were very well attended. We would like to thank you very much for your interest! You can view the slides and the videos again here. You can also explore our scenarios yourself in the scenario explorer!





The project

In the project "Long-term Scenarios for the Transformation of the Energy System in Germany" (Long-term Scenarios 3), scenarios for the future development of the energy system are being modeled on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, with which the energy and climate policy goals can be achieved. The modeling covers the entire energy system.

Our mission

We want to "illuminate" the path to a greenhouse gas-neutral energy system ever better for the social discourse on the energy transition. That is why we are constantly developing our models so that the picture becomes brighter and brighter. In doing so, we do not make forecasts, but investigate interdependencies.

The team

The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research is working on this project with its partners Consentec Gmbh, ifeu – Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH, and the Chair of Energy and Resource Management at the TU Berlin. So far, more than 30 scientists have collaborated on this project.           

Transparency

The Long-term Scenarios 3 project is being worked on by the project team on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action. We want to create a high degree of transparency for the public discourse on the energy transition by providing documentation and data in the Scenario Explorer.