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Wohlfühlklima ohne Energieverluste durch innovatives Fenstersystem
Long-term Scenarios 3
The calculations for the T45 scenarios have begun. With our models, which have been improved once again, we are investigating how Germany can become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045, taking into account current political goals.
New content available in the Scenario Explorer.
New content T45 scenarios (greenhouse gas neutral by 2045)
T45-Strom* scenarios (2024)
Translation coming soon
T45 scenarios (2022)
Scenario Explorer
11.03.2024 Update: in thedashboards for the electricity system, coal-fired CHP can now be found under "Hard coal" and "Lignite", previously it was listed under "Other".
21.12.2023: The buildings report on the T45 scenarios is online.
19.12.2023: The biomass potential report on the T45 scenarios is online.
18.12.2023: The report of the industry sector on the T45 scenarios is online.
09.01.2023: New storage data on Germany online
23.11.2022: New Dashboard on transmission grids online
23.11.2022: New Dashboard on distribution grids online
21.11.2022: New dashboard on heat grids dispatch online
21.11.2022: New Dashboard on dispatch electricity online
18.11.2022: New dashboard on hydrogen trading online
Webinars
Thank you for your interest! A total of approx. 2450 people took part in our webinar series from 15 November 2022 to 24 November 2022.
Webinars:
- 15.11.2022 12-14:00 General overview
- 16.11.2022 10-11:30 Industry
- 17.11.2022 13-14:30 Buildings
- 21.11.2022 10-11:30 Transport
- 22.11.2022 10-12:30 Supply
- 24.11.2022 10-12:00 Grids
Feel free to watch the recordings and explore the energy transition in the Scenario Explorer .
Documents
Slides (in German)
* Set of slides updated on 23.11.22
** Set of slides updated on 14.12.22
Videos (in German)
Overview webinar with State Secretary Dr. Patrick Graichen
Thank you for your interest! More than 750 participants took part in the overview webinar via stream and online conference! In our Q&A channel we answered 73 questions and thank you for your very active participation!
Webinars on the sectors
Thank you for your interest! A total of about 2450 people participated in our webinar series from 15.11.2022 to 24.11.2022. They asked more than 370 questions, which we answered. Thank you very much for your active participation ! Here you can find the 11 hours of video material of the webinars.
Thank you for your interest! More than 350 participants took part in the webinar on energy supply! In our Q&A channel we answered 71 questions and thank you for your very active participation!
Thank you for your interest! More than 250 participants attended the webinar on the transport sector on 21.11.2022. We answered 47 questions in our Q&A channel and thank you for your very active participation!
Thank you for your interest! More than 350 participants took part in the webinar on 17.11.2022 of the building and household appliances and tertiary processes and appliances sectors. We answered 63 questions in our Q&A channel and thank you for your very active participation!
Thank you for your interest! More than 400 participants attended the webinar of the industry sector on 16.11.2022. We answered 52 questions in our Q&A channel and thank you for your very active participation!
Thank you for your interest! More than 350 participants took part in the webinar grids! In our Q&A channel we answered 73 questions and thank you for your very active participation!
TN scenarios (greenhouse gas neutral by 2050)
The TN scenarios were calculated in 2021. We examine different paths for Germany with the goal of becoming greenhouse gas neutral by 2050. Even though the targets have become more ambitious in the meantime, many insights can be gained from comparing the total of 9 scenarios calculated in high resolution. A special feature of this study is the integrated view taking into account electricity and gas grids, as well as the full European resolution on the supply side.
We hope you enjoy exploring these paths !
New reports / documents
12.01.2022: The report of the "industry" sector is now available in the documents section
30.11.2021: The report of the "electricity grids" sector is now available in the documents section
30.11.2021: The report of the sector "energy supply" is now available in the documents section
30.11.2021: The report of the "transport" sector is now available in the documents section
14.10.2021: The report of the "building sector" is now available in the documents section
01.10.2021: The report module for onshore wind energy potentials (174) is now available in the documents section
24.09.2021: The report module for household appliances and tertiary processes and appliances is now available in the documents section
12.08.2021: Full documentation for offshore wind energy potential available in documents section with revised dashboard
New content in the Scenario Explorer
Note: Occasionally there can be problems with the display of the dashboards in the browser Chrome. In incognito mode (Ctrl-Shift+N) or by deleting cache and cookies this error can usually be fixed.
19.05.2022: Dashboard on CSP potentials in Europe online
15.03.2022: New dashboard on final energy consumption
15.03.2022: The transmission network development dashboard has been updated
11.03.2022: The dashboard on electricity consumption in Europe now also includes electricity consumption for heat pumps
05.03.2022: The network cost dashboard now includes a breakdown by network level.
10.02.2022: The dashboards on heat networks now also include data on heat generation from biomass. This results in minor changes to some indicators.
24.01.2022: By popular request, the hourly dispatch data for Germany are now also available for download as a file
13.01.2022: New dashboards for onshore wind and PV online
12.01.2022: Dashboards on the industry sector revised with many new contents
10.01.2022: Dashboard framework data framework data revised, now including GDP
21.12.2021: New dashboard on the potential of ground-mounted PV
17.12.2021: New dashboard on charging infrastructure in the transport sector
15.12.2021: New dashboards on the European power system available for all TN scenarios Supply | Long-term scenarios
09.12.2021: New dashboards on the German power system available for all TN scenarios (generation, performance).
07.12.2021: New dashboard Hydrogen demand in Germany (regionalized) available
19.11.2021: New dashboard on peak power demand available
11.11.2021: New dashboard on energy carrier prices available
10.11.2021: New electricity trading dashboard available.
22.10.2021: The dashboard on onshore wind energy potentials is now available
21.10.2021: The dashboards electricity system in Europe and electricity system in Germany now also include the outputs for storage hydropower, flexible biomass and the full load hours of gas-fired power plants.
11.10.2021: Full load hours in the dashboard electricity system Germany extended
08.10.2021: Download option in the dashboard dispatch Germany now enabled
06.10.2021: Dashboard electricity system Europe revised with many new figures and parameters.
12.08.2021: Full documentation for offshore wind energy potentials available in documents section with revised dashboard .
30.07.2021: Scenario Explorer now includes data on hydrogen production in Europe
30.07.2021: Scenario Explorer now includes detailed industry data in sector resolution
20.07.2021: The Scenario Explorer now contains a new dashboard on emission factors of energy carriers under overall balances
16.07.2021: The Power Generation dashboard now includes full load hours for selected technologies Germany. The graph "Installed capacity in Germany" in the Scenario Explorer now also includes flexible hydropower and biomass (data update).
13.07.2021: New dashboard available in Scenario Explorer on storage volume
12.07.2021: New dashboard available in the Scenario Explorer on framework data
Quick overview TN scenarios
Executive Summary presentation available
We have provided an initial overview of our current findings with a slide set of the Executive Summary. (more here; translation available soon)
Executive Summary report available
Webinar Series
Webinar on scenario variants TN-Electricity
On 02.12.2021, more than 300 participants took part in the webinar on the scenario variants of the "electricity world" and asked more than 120 questions in the chat. We would like to thank you for your active interest!.. You can find the slide set here . You can start the video here. Webinar Scenario Variants TN-Electricity
Overview webinar with State Secretary Andreas Feicht
To kick off the project, an overview of the results was presented to the interested public during a two-hour webinar on Friday, June 25, 2021 from 12:30 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. in the presence of state secretary Andreas Feicht.
The webinar was streamed and recorded. More than 500 participants attended live. You can find the slide set here . You can start the video here. overview webinar
Webinar series very well attended
From 25.06.2021 to 08.07.2021, we hosted 6 webinars on our scenarios. The webinars were very well attended. We would like to thank you very much for your interest! You can view the slides and the videos again here. You can also explore our scenarios yourself in the scenario explorer!
Webinars on the sectors
Webinar Sektor Verkehr schließt die Webinarserie
On 08 July 2021, more than 150 participants attended the live transport webinar. You can find the slide set here .
A lot of questions were answered in the chat. Click on the picture to start the video.
Webinar electricity & gas grids with strong participation
Energy offer webinar with intensive discussion
Due to requests, we have expanded our offer in the Scenario Explorer to include the COP of the heat pumps. Now available here.
Webinar on the building sector with large participation
On 30 June 2021, more than 200 participants were live at the Buildings Sector Webinar. You can find the slides here.
There was a very active discussion in the chat. Click on the picture to see the video .
Industry webinar with more than 200 participants
Research is constantly on the way
The Long-term Scenarios 3 project is an ongoing project. Some scenarios have already been calculated and are being documented. Others are still being calculated. In this respect, we will constantly expand the offer on this website. But especially the complete documentation always takes some time and will always be a little later than the publication of the data.
The project
In the project "Long-term Scenarios for the Transformation of the Energy System in Germany" (Long-term Scenarios 3), scenarios for the future development of the energy system are being modeled on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, with which the energy and climate policy goals can be achieved. The modeling covers the entire energy system.
Our mission
We want to "illuminate" the path to a greenhouse gas-neutral energy system ever better for the social discourse on the energy transition. That is why we are constantly developing our models so that the picture becomes brighter and brighter. In doing so, we do not make forecasts, but investigate interdependencies.
The team
The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research is working on this project with its partners Consentec Gmbh, ifeu – Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH, and the Chair of Energy and Resource Management at the TU Berlin. So far, more than 30 scientists have collaborated on this project.
Transparency
The Long-term Scenarios 3 project is being worked on by the project team on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action. We want to create a high degree of transparency for the public discourse on the energy transition by providing documentation and data in the Scenario Explorer.