Building sector

T45 scenarios

Erkennungsbild T45-Szenraien

The calculations for the T45 scenarios have started. With our models, which have been improved once again, we are investigating how Germany can become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045, taking into account current political goals.

The following scenarios will be presented here shortly.

  • T45-Electricity
  • T45-H2
  • T45-PtG/PtL
  • T45-RedEff
  • T45-RedGas

TN scenarios

Erkennungsbild der TN-Szenarien

The TN scenarios were calculated in 2021. We examine different paths for Germany with the goal of becoming greenhouse gas neutral by 2050. Even though the targets have become more ambitious in the meantime, many insights can be gained from comparing the total of 9 scenarios calculated in high resolution. A special feature of this study is the integrated consideration of electricity and gas grids, as well as the full European resolution on the supply side.

We hope you enjoy exploring these paths!

Building sector

Erkennungsbild TN-Szenarien


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Reports and webinars


On 30.06.2021, more than 200 participants attended the webinar on the building sector. We thank you for your active interest! You can find the slide set here

The team

Peter Mellwig

Peter Mellwig

Head of modelling building sector

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Sebastian Blömer

Sebastian Blömer

Modelling heat grids           

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The model

GEMOD is an ifeu-developed model for the calculation of the energy consumption for space heating and domestic hot water. Based on the status quo, the future consumption trajectory may be modelled with a range of different assumptions. Thus, the model can illustrate novel development options for the building sector, impacts of user behaviour, technology development, policy instruments, and identify needs for action. The scope of the calculation ranges from single construction parts to building stocks of any size. User behaviour can be considered depending on the energetic quality of the buildings. The model reports the energy consumption separately for individual energy carriers and in the following step computes the primary energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and fuel costs.

Source and further information can be found here.

For the consideration of interactions between heat demand and infrastructure development, the results of the GEMOD simulations at the federal level are transferred to the spatial building database of the ifeu Wärmeatlas 2.0 (heat atlas).

The Wärmeatlas 2.0 is based on the 3D building models of the land surveying offices, which are assigned to energy types according to the GEMOD typology. Nationwide, 19.1 million heated residential and 3.1 million heated non-residential building geometries are identified, for which the consumption-calibrated useful energy requirements for heating and domestic hot water in the base year are calculated, taking into account building age class shares on a hectare grid from the 2011 building and housing census and regionally differentiated climate data according to DIN-V 18599-10.

The model enables the spatially high-resolution updating of the useful heat demand according to building type and building age classes, an additional regional differentiation according to the living space demand forecast of the BBSR (German Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development) at district level and enables the spatial analysis of potential final energy demands especially for infrastructure-relevant heating technologies such as district heating, gas or electric heat pumps.

Source and further information can be found here.

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